Whoever Wins, We Lose

alien-vs-predator-posterMore from my West Wing Writers colleague David Litt:

Our more cultured readers will recognize the title as the tagline from the 2004 classic, Alien vs. Predator. But it’s also what popped into my head when I thought about the public debate over Supreme Court justices. Here’s why.

When George W. Bush was president, he did a great job of framing the debate on his terms: Liberal Activists vs. Conservative Constructionists. As a Democrat, entering that debate was like having to choose the Alien or the Predator. Whoever wins, we lose.

I wanted to look at Sotomayor’s confirmation hearings to see if the frame has changed. I think it has. In fact, we’ve seen three competing frames at work over the last few days. In the order of best to worst, from a Democrat’s perspective, here they are.

Obama: Caring vs. Uncaring

This is the Alien vs. Predator scenario for Republicans. Liberals have a heart, conservatives don’t. That’s why Republicans are so concerned about “empathy” as a standard for future justices.

Democratic Senators: Liberal activist vs. conservative activist

Many Democratic Senators have used the hearings to attack the Roberts Court, which is busily proving that conservatives can be activists too. Under this frame, Democrats would be expected to support left-leaning justices, and Republicans would support right-leaning ones. At the moment, that gives Democrats an advantage.

Republican Senators: Biased vs. Impartial

If the past is any guide, you’d think that Republicans hoping to derail Sotomayor’s nomination would make a charge of “activism” the center of their argument. They haven’t. Instead, they’ve focused on Sotomayor’s “wise Latina” remark and her ruling in the Ricci firefighter case. Their not-so-subtle suggestion: “empathy” is code for “doesn’t like white guys.”

As the New York Times (and our own Ed Walsh) point out, Sotomayor is going to get confirmed, so this is really an issue for Obama’s next nominee. What kind of debate will he or she be wading into?

I find the Republican line of attack distasteful, but it’s good defense against Obama’s empathetic offense. Rather than argue on the President’s terms, they’re reframing the question, and Obama hasn’t succeeding in making empathy the universal standard for a judge. In the meantime, the “judicial activism” frame has been left undefended, and it’s taking a beating. For the first time in at least nine years, the field is wide open.

So while the Sotomayor debate may be over, the debate over the debate is only going to fiercer. Want more proof? Just look at the the tagline for the Alien vs. Predator Sequel: “This Christmas, there will be no peace on earth.”

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