REMAIN CALM!

Ruth Marcus of The Washington Post argues that the New Jersey and Virginia elections predict nothing for President Obama and the Democratic Congress.

Her case is superficially convincing.  She does a good job of showing how these two races, historically, have not been good predictors of how the next election will turn out.  Two things about this year, however, stand out–and they are not good omens for the Democrats in the 2010 mid-term, or for President Obama’s agenda.

One:  Virginia was a 60-40 blowout for all three statewide races.  This cannot be blamed, as Marcus argues, on a purple state with a decidedly red tinge.  Nor can it be blamed on the lackluster Deeds campaign, as the White House would have it.  To go from where Virginia was in 2008 to where it is today can only be explained by voters animated by a passionate desire to send a message.  Whom do you think that message is aimed at?

And to handily win the governorship in New Jersey against a savvy incumbent who spent millions of his own cash as if they were stimulus dollars–that is real a sign of change a-brewin’.  Somehow, all the discussion is about Virginia–as if the loss of New Jersey, one of the bluest of blue states was just an anomaly.

If there is no adjustment in the Democrats’ agenda–if the Congress succeeds in overriding all opposition and imposes its vision of health care, cap-and-trade, and heavy regulation–these two races will be seen as the first rumblings of the next political Vesuvius.